Recently, I had the opportunity to attend a lecture at City Hall by Richard Heinberg, an award-winning author and educator. Heinberg, who hails from the Post Carbon Institute in Santa Rosa California, is a futurist and leading international commentator on Peak Oil. He is the first speaker in the City of Edmonton’s Distinguisher Speaker Series that will help inform The Way We Green, Edmonton’s new environmental strategic plan. Heinberg’s topic was peak oil and how this trend could impact Edmonton’s future.
Part 1
So what is peak oil?
Peak oil occurs when new discoveries of economically viable oil deposits and related production begin to decline over time. In his presentation, Heinberg said the US used to be the world’s foremost oil producer. But oil production in the States peaked in 1970 and has been in decline ever since. A similar trend is happening world wide. As Heinberg explained: “Global oil production falls when loss of output from countries declining exceeds gains from those expanding.” In other words, one barrel of oil is now being discovered for every five being consumed and world oil production has been flat since 2005.
Part 2
On the day of Heinberg’s lecture, the Wall Street Journal reported: “A shortage of oil could be a real problem for the world within a fairly short period of time.”
Part 3
Could this shortage of oil affect Edmonton? Surely we have a huge supply nearby in the oil sands? Well, this is where things can get complicated. The costs of mining and extraction from the oil sands are significantly higher than those with conventional oil. Heinberg added another twist in that it is not only the quantity of oil produced that constitutes a challenge but the cost.
Part 4
He explained how the supply of oil affects our economy and how our standard of living is related to a narrow crude oil ‘price band’. If prices are too high, the economy slows down, for example, the cost of air travel and food production increases. If prices are too low, investment decreases and economic expansion is limited and the building of our infrastructure diminishes.
Part 5
Richard Heinberg suggested that we view fossil fuels not as an end point but as a bridge to a future of renewable energies and that we plan and act proactively while we still have the opportunity to do so.
Part 6
In the coming months, we will be posting updates on the main City website (The Way We Green) and on the Transforming Edmonton Blog, including more videos from our speakers’ series and reporting on the progress of Way we Green planning process.
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